1.3. The challenge of control: sustainability transition is like sailing the ocean
1.3 The challenge of control: sustainability transition is like sailing the ocean
Earth system sciences and socio-ecological systems research have provided insights into the current state of the processes that are important for the well-being of all life, their interactions and the risks of changes in them for the well-being of both humans and the rest of nature. The activities of human systems, with their side-effects, must fit within the planetary boundaries discussed above.
Without a sustainability transition, societies risk drifting into uncontrolled and unpredictable change, as the integrity of key processes for well-being erodes and changes fuel disruptions to other important processes. For example, the clearing of forests for cultivation directly causes climate change and biodiversity loss. These changes in turn can have negative impacts on, among other things, nutrient cycling, climate change (due to declining carbon sinks), and populations of organisms dependent on food chains that previously operated in the cleared area.
The impacts, which may be uncontrollable, are not limited to changes in ecological processes and environmental conditions only. For example, climate change is estimated to cause significant migration and refugee flows during the coming decades, although estimates of migration flows have
been criticized as methodologically flawed and politically risky. However, some estimates suggest that hundreds of millions or even more than a billion people might have to migrate because of climate change by 2050. This would mean huge movements and population changes, and the unpredictable population fluctuations would, in turn, challenge the stability of many societies. Water scarcity and food insecurity – as food production is affected by climate change – could lead to unrest and conflict, with repercussions that could spill over to the other side of the globe.
The size and rate of human migration flows influence, in turn, designing sustainability transition pathways, but the scale and timing of migration flows is very difficult to estimate. Climate migration and displacement is therefore an example of the large uncertainties that must be lived with and prepared for on the path towards the sustainability transition. At the same time, it shows how the direct and indirect consequences of environmental problems are likely to force societies to face major changes in any case. The sustainability transition would significantly reduce the risk of changes that are completely uncontrollable, unforeseen, and disastrous for well-being.
However, even a sustainability transition can only be partially controlled. No complex system can be completely controlled, and modern human-built societies and their networks are extremely complex systems. But change does not require controlling everything. As an analogy, one could say that achieving a sustainability transition is like sailing a windy ocean: while it is impossible to control every sway of the ship or the direction in which the gusts sometimes push the bow of the boat, a skilled sailor can nevertheless avoid reefs and shipwrecks and act in ways that gradually move the boat towards a distant harbor. Occasionally the boat may stray further off the best course, but once the sailor checks the position, the course can be corrected and the choice of route updated so that the boat is once again heading towards the harbor. However, if action is not taken as soon as possible, especially in high-income societies with a large ecological footprint, we as a human race will eventually find ourselves in the eye of a huge storm, at which point navigating and even partially controlling the boat will become quite impossible.
A sailing ship could be caught in another kind of storm, with catastrophic consequences, even in those futures where sustainability measures have been taken. This could happen if different sectors of production and companies rapidly begin taking different sustainability actions without any guidance from the top (societies and policy makers) regarding the direction of the changes and the distribution of the associated benefits and drawbacks. There is a risk, for example, of uncontrolled and thus unsustainable use of critical materials or other raw materials, and of sharply increasing inequality and concentration of power. These issues will be discussed further in section 3.6 of the course, called “Just transition”.
Societies are not structures set in stone; they are in a state of constant change. Recent history has witnessed many societal changes, from improvements in the rights of women and black people (and other people of color) to the remediation of ozone depletion and revolutionary system changes in water supply and wastewater treatment. It was largely only in the early 20th century that women began to enjoy equal political rights with men in the world, and it is presumed that the world's first female politicians involved in decision-making at the state level were elected in the 1907 Finnish parliamentary elections. Electoral and decision-making systems have changed significantly along with these reforms. A key factor in the solving of the ozone depletion was international cooperation, culminating in the Montreal Protocol, which first restricted and then, after a transitional period, banned the use of ozone-depleting CFCs in refrigeration equipment (although this change was easily accepted because it was mainly technical and did not require companies, let alone consumers, to change their practices in other respects). As for landscape and water conservation, societies have made significant advances over the last 150 years as the approach to wastewater treatment has shifted from “out of sight, out of mind” to the development of advanced sewerage and wastewater treatment plants.
Small wins for water and landscape conservation from London to Koli
1858 A hot summer in London led to unprecedented odor nuisance and “The Great Stink” crisis in the River Thames, which had been a dumping ground for years. The crisis sparked an initiative that in no less than 18 days resulted in a law that launched a sewerage system costing hundreds of millions of pounds in today's money and a construction project that was gigantic for its time. The sewerage system was later integrated with wastewater treatment, reducing the amount of waste pollution entering the River Thames. Today, the water quality of the River Thames is better than in the 19th century and its biota has recovered: 125 species of fish and 400 species of invertebrates have been recorded in the river.
1963 An oxygen depletion of the Aura River led to the disappearance of fish from the river and, together with a worsening stench, alerted Turku's decision-makers and officials to the seriousness of the deterioration of the river. The prolonged deterioration had sparked debate, but the river was believed to clean itself up (after all, it was flowing), so plans for Turku's sewage disposal had fallen short of what had been planned as early as 1934. In 1962, the Water Act, which emphasized water conservation, was passed, and in 1963 the first central treatment plant for Turku's wastewater was built. In the 1970s, the pollution of the Aura River stopped, and the water quality improved considerably. Today, at least 40 species of fish, including three endangered migratory species (Atlantic salmon, trout and whitefish), are found in the Aura River.
1992 Finnish Landscape Conservation Programme to mark the country's 75th anniversary. The working group selected 27 national landscape areas (list) to protect, which were considered to reflect the most significant natural and cultural features in Finland. The law requires that the value of national landscapes is taken into account in land use plans. The Koli landscape, among others, is protected.
Some changes happen by chance – especially the unintended and unwanted side effects of trajectories, such as the deterioration of people's basic fitness as technological advances in transport reduce muscular mobility. Some changes build quite predictably on preceding developments without deliberate societal control, such as the advancing of the industrial revolution after the invention of steam power. However, changes in the direction of societal development or in long-established behavior patterns are almost always a result of some form of planned collective action. For example, changes in the status of women, in the use of CFCs or in water protection have not come about by chance. These changes are often a result of many societal struggles that preceded them, but the course has been reversed through collective agreement and the resulting policy actions. Understanding how systems work helps to understand how to generate the necessary impetus for change and how to remove the obstacles to change. In this way, through multi-level cooperation, the boat can start to turn towards the goal of planetary well-being.